Last week end we saw that the index was struggling to move up and
the effort to result ratio was not encouraging. As a result we expected the
index to range or retrace. On the first day the index attempted to take out the
previous price rejection level of 10137 and closed at 10153. However this level
could not be sustained and the index started slipping in the next two days.
However on Thursday we saw supply taking control. But the buyers did not give
up easily and the index ended much above the low of 10058. But on Friday the
buying interest was lacking as selling took full control and we saw a
widespread “Effort to move down” bar closing near the low. Clearly the bad
effort to result ratio was the cause and we saw the Effect which was the
retracement. The volume off the big down move of Friday was
not very high. The above average volume indicates that further downside is limited.
Support could be coming around 9910 or 9860 below. On the upper side 10137 remains
sacrosanct as of now J.
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