#NIFTY View on the 14th of December.

In the last couple of days we saw weakness in the market  and index was retreating from recent gains. Today however we saw the index smartly recover from lows. However the volume was low.  Technically today’s Bar is a Successful “Test”.  But the overall market still shows  weakness. The declines were 63% compared to 39% advances. The points lost outnumbered the gain points. However the Buy volume was 61% compared to 39% sell volume.  Looks like Buying is concentrated on select stocks while the overall market lost.  Tomorrow the market may be propelled higher by the Gujarat exit polls.

#NIFTY View on the 6th December.

 The weakness in the Market is continuing.  The last two days the selling pressure had declined and there was some buying interest coming back in the NIFTY. However today the weakness has been reinforced.  Many supports has been broken and the next possible supports for the index are seen at 10020, 9810 and 9730.  The Market is likely to remain weak till the Gujarat election results and the outcome would decide the further way forward for the Market.

#NIFTY View on the 10th of November.

Yesterday we saw that the overall market showed signs of strength whereas the index exhibited signs of weakness persisting.  We did expect that the overall market strength would reflect on the index as well. Today we did see strength coming back to the index. We saw a below average spread bar with above average volume closing on upper side albeit the gain was meager.  The overall market data shows some strange behavior today. The advances were only 649 compared to 925 declines. However the gains were more than the losses and the buy volume was much more than the sell volume. (See table). Anyways the week ended with sign of strength coming back into the market. Ideally we should see the market making an attempt to take out 10400.

#NIFTY View on the 9th of November.

Today we saw the index open higher and later lose all the gains. The index did enter negative territory and later recovered a little to close in the positive territory.  Looking at the index we see that the selling pressure was greater than the buying pressure. However if we look at the overall market the buying pressure was greater than the selling pressure. The overall gain made in the market was greater than the losses. (Refer Table). Here the picture presented by the index is indeed different from that of the overall market. The overall market shows signs of strength returning and we should see more upside soon. This strength should also reflect on the Index as well.

#NIFTY View on the 8th of November.

Yesterday we did anticipate that the weakness would continue. We saw an above average spread Bar with above average volume down Bar closing near the low on the NIFTY. The above average volume adds credibility to the weakness.  We again look at the chart of the overall market Buying and selling pressure. The Selling volume for the overall market has been nearly four times the buy volume. (Refer the table). The weakness is likely to continue. 

#NIFTY Outlook for the 7th of November.

The market had been moving up steadily in the recent past. Today we saw a marked weakness creeping in. We saw a widespread down bar on higher volume.  If we plot a composite buying and selling pressure for the whole market instead of just the index, it would provide a much better picture. As indicated in the attached chart the market has been moving up steadily but the buying pressure had been stagnant which is a sign of weakness. The weakness manifested today. The higher volume adds more credibility to the weakness. Tomorrow’s move is very crucial as it would substantiate or negate the weakness. The probability of the weakness continuing is more.  More on the market buying and selling pressure in a later post .

#NIFTY View on the 26th of September.

 Yesterday we saw that there was some buying seen and we expected the index to bottom out soon. Today we saw some selling early in the session. Soon buying interest dominated and we saw the index recover and close near the open. The index again closed above the previous support level of 9860. Technically today’s Bar is a successful test for supply. We need to see tomorrows move for confirmation of the “Successful Test”.  Anyway the market seems to have bottomed out. We could see some sideways move in the coming days before seeing any upside as the retracement of the overall up move from 9700 has been quite deep and more than 50%.  Some consolidation around these levels is only natural.

#NIFTY Weekend view on the 23rd September.

 Last week end we saw that the index was struggling to move up and the effort to result ratio was not encouraging. As a result we expected the index to range or retrace. On the first day the index attempted to take out the previous price rejection level of 10137 and closed at 10153. However this level could not be sustained and the index started slipping in the next two days. However on Thursday we saw supply taking control. But the buyers did not give up easily and the index ended much above the low of 10058. But on Friday the buying interest was lacking as selling took full control and we saw a widespread “Effort to move down” bar closing near the low. Clearly the bad effort to result ratio was the cause and we saw the Effect which was the retracement.   The volume off the big down move of Friday was not very high. The above average volume indicates that further downside is limited. Support could be coming around 9910 or 9860 below. On the upper side 10137 remains sacrosanct as of now J.

#COALINDIA Will the breakout sustain this time?

 The sustained Buying Interest seems to favor a successful breakout.

#NIFTY View on the 15th September.

 We saw the Index making some healthy up moves from the low of August. However this month we saw the Index ranging on low volume. Then there was a clear attempt to move the index on increased volume which however failed to produce the desired result. We saw a poor effort to Result ratio. The Index is struggling around the previous price rejection level of 10075. There is a good probability that we will see some more ranging if not a retracement at the current levels. The Index need to cross 10140 convincingly to see more up side. 

#CIPLA Not looking very positive

This stock  has been moving in a range for the last three months. The range seems to be more dominated by more selling than buying. It seems to signal distribution rather than accumulation. Volume is not coming in like the other Pharma stocks. Also the stock has not shown any tendency for breakout like it’s peers.

#SUNPHARMA

This stock has broken out of consolidation on High volume on the 13^th. The next day’s gapup UP bar on high volume sort of confirms the breakout. The odds favor much higher side. If entering at these levels an ideal SL would be 500 with some room for a shakeout 

#VSA #WYCKOFF #Learningwthmarar #WOCKPHARMA Some learning on the Wyckoffian Analysis with Wockhard Pharma Chart..

#VSA #WYCKOFF #Learningwthmarar #WOCKPHARMA Some learning on the Wyckoffian Analysis with Wockhard Pharma Chart..

#NIFTYPHARMA #PHARMASTOCKS

After substantial losses the Pharma stocks have started making a quite recovery as evident in the Pharma Index. After the big fall we saw two quick buy waves (Short covering) and some accumulation. Last week we saw some real demand coming in these stock.  Sun Pharma has broken out of consolidation. In stocks like Divis Lab and IPCA we saw some flare up. Biocon , Cipla and Glenpharma have not really broken out yet and should be on the watch list.  Sun Pharma looks set to move higher and it is worth to look for entry opportunities. Shall post chart of the Individual stocks separately.

#COALINDIA #VSA Update on the 5th of August.

 My last post on this stock was on the 21^st July when the stock was making a rally on increased volume. We expected the upmove to continue. However the stock failed to sustain above the previous price rejection levels of 255.  Soon the stock was struggling around a price support level of 250.  On the 3^rd we saw a wide spread “Effort to Fall” bar on very high volume braking the last support level of 243 (Marked A on the chart). Obviously one would expect huge selling pressure on this Bar. But the next day we a wise spread up bar closing high and above the price support level (B).  Volume was still very high albeit not as high as the previous day. This Bar indicates that there was lot of buying interest in the previous bar. In the Wyckoffian terms this move (A-B) is clearly a shakeout. And the move of 17-18 July could be the secondary Test. Anyway looks like the SM is still in the process of accumulating and we need to wait  for some more time for the markup phase.

#SUNPHARMA #VSA #Stoppingvolume

 Let us have a look at the Sunpharma Chart.  The stock was going through a down Trend from March, a move which culminated on the 29^th of May (Marked A on the chart).  We saw a widespread spread bar which gapped down on ultra high volume and which closed  on the lower part of the Bar. Obviously this was not a “Stopping Volume Bar” considering the lower close.  However the next bar was a narrow spread up Bar closing above the previous close (B). The volume was also high. This bar clearly indicates that the there was a lot of buying in the previous wide spread Bar. If selling completely dominated the previous bar then the next bar would not have been up bar.  So the narrow spread Bar on the 30^th May indicated that the down trend has been capped. Then the stock moved up slowly and lethargically for the next 50 days before moving down again. Today he stock again tested the last price support level of 502. Today we saw a wide spread Bar on high volume closing on the upper side, a classical “Stopping Volume” Bar(C).  Clearly good amount of buying has come in the previous support zone. Then ideally we should see the stock travel back the last price rejection level of 578.  However we should wait for a confirmation on Monday. Good SL would be 492. 

#EDELWEISS

#EDELWEISS This stock moving into new higher level. We have been following this stock from 80s level. Today’s move was of course news driven. However the upward move is likely to continue

#GLENPHARMA Update on the 31st July.

Recently this stock has been exhibiting strength when the Pharma Index NIFTY PHARMA exhibited heightened weakness losing nearly 800 points. However in the last two sessions this stock too joined the other Pharma stocks showing weakness. The pharma sector was pulled down by poor Q1 results of some leading stocks. However the Q1 performance of Glenpharma itself was much better than expectations. The stock is still above the support level 691. The volume has also dropped today though still high.  The Up Trend is still valid and will be till 683 is broken. It will be interesting to see if the recovery will come soon.

#GSPL Interestingly Poised

This stock is interestingly poised. The stock has been moving up on increased volume. It is just below the previous price rejection level of 193. A break of this level will move the stock into new higher territory. A close above 199 will make it a stronger bet. This one will be on my watch list. 

#GLENMARK Update on my post of 25th.

The stock clearly crossed the suggested entry level of above 710 and that too on high volume.  There is always a possibility of test of the 710 level. The chance of this is remote considering the high volume of today.

#NIFTY View on the 27th July.

Today we saw a copy book “Up Thrust” Bar on high volume.  Being a expiry day today’s move can be viewed with a pinch of salt. However the weakness highlighted still exists albeit a little watered down. Tomorrow’s move is very critical as that will confirm or negate the weakness.  If the weakness is confirmed then we can see 9890 level tested. The dices are loaded towards a retracement. The overall Up Trend remains intact and a retracement would be only healthy for the Market.

#GLENMARK Update on 25th.

The stock has moved up since my last post on the 7^th.  (https://mararmusing.blogspot.com/2017/07/glenmark-seeking-higher-levels-after.html). Looks like now is chance for re-entry. Safe entry would be above 710. The aggressive entry would be now.  Uptrend safe till 683.

#AXISBANK Trying to move up after months of consolidation

#COALINDIA #LearningwithMarar #VSA

The stock has been in a down trend since March. Now it does look like the down side has been capped and a smart money campaign is in the offing.  

During June we saw the down trend taper off with indications of lack of Supply. Then we saw a classical successful Test. This was soon followed by a Rally. However the Rally was on low volume and that did not give us the confidence. The following retracement ended with high volume up bar indicating strength.  A “Effort to move up bar” followed starting another rally on increased volume. This is a clear indication that the smart money did have some prior information on the positive news which would follow and they are ready to start a campaign. Today we saw a very high volume widespread up Bar which is obviously driven by the positive news. Clearly looks like the smart money campaign would continue and this provides a good opportunity. A conservative SL would be 250 and last price support level would be 243.

#NIFTY Weekend View.

Early part of the week we saw some dominance by supply and we expected some retracement. This did not happen and instead we saw the index surge further ahead. However the volume remained low as the supply took a back seat.  The last upthrust was on much lower volume.  The lower volume produced a much higher price change. In other word higher result on much lower effort.  A retracement is overdue and the conditions for the same still exist albeit not very apparent. A retracement would be good for a healthy up move. A retracement is very much on the cards. That would be good for a healthy up move and would provide more opportunities.

#NIFTY View on the 11th July.

 As expected the index made more upward moves. However today we saw supply dominating the demand and the index ended a little lower near the low. The dominance of supply though not overwhelming indicates that we could see a retracement before seeking higher levels.  Support level down below would be 9665 and 9690.

#NIFTY View on the 10th July.

In yesterday’s weekend view we saw that the bias was on the positive side.  Today we saw a definite move to break the supply zone around 9665. The index has now moved into next higher zone and the upside move should continue. I am not going into more detailed analysis as the volume data is suspect. The volume data is very low and it is not clear if this is actual correct or error data. The technical glitch has thrown up lot of bad data for so many stocks. Waiting to see if NSE will provide an updated data for the day. Otherwise some intelligent manual correction may be required so that our analysis does not get distorted. 

#GLENMARK Seeking higher levels after short consolidation,,

#NIFTY Weekend view on the 9th of July.

 When we reviewed the index last week we expected some sideways move. We also saw that 9665 will be the obstacle on the upper side. This week we saw the index move up on low volume. And as expected supply started to overwhelm above this crucial level. 9665 was the previous price rejection level and we can see still supply is coming above this level and at the same time we see support coming below this level. Now the index is poised at this crucial level.  Failure to cross this level with good volume will send index down towards support level of 9490.  Hence next couple of sessions will be very crucial.  The low volume in the last two sessions when the index faced the supply area does provide a positive bias.

A study in Volume and Price waves

#NIFTY Weekend View on the 25th.

The week’s move by itself was with a bearish bias. However the longer term move was indeed sideways. The Index is poised at a crucial level now. The index had broken the previous price support level at 9606 and near the previous maximum downside price excursion. A lower close from current level could take it sub 9500 levels.  However the probability the index taking support at current levels is more likely as the week’s bearish move was on low volume.  The index is likely to have more sideways move. 9665 is still the stumbling block for the Nifty which has to be broken convincingly.

#NIFTY View on the 21st June.

The Index has been moving in a sideways move from the beginning of the month.  The volume remained low. Levels above 9665 have been continuously rejected and whereas levels below 9606 have been supported. Recently we saw some strength coming in terms of a bullish buy wave. But this was not able to make much headway.  A close above 9690 with substantial volume will see the index seeking higher level.  However we are more likely to see more sideways before this can happen. 

#NIFTY View on the 1st June.

On the 25^th we saw the Index started a rally with a good effort to move up Bar on high volume. The next day we saw the index scale new heights with another Effort to move up bar with above average volume.  However this week the index has not been able to make much head way. We saw a very interesting bar on the 31^st. We saw a small spread down bar on very high volume. This bar indicates that supply tried to overwhelm the Demand. However demand put up a great resistance and as a result the spread remained small. Still the day belonged to supply as indicated by the down close.  Overall this week the demand failed to move the price up much in spite of great effort.  This Effort to result ratio does indicate weakness. Normally when much effort fails to get the desired result the general tendency is to step back and come back later with renewed strength. We have a similar situation and looks like a retracement would follow. This would only give more opportunities as the overall uptrend is very much in place and the index will seek newer highs.

#NIFTY View on the 10th of May.

Today we saw the index scaling new heights. We saw an above average Bar closing nearing the high. The volume was less than average. This indicates that supply stayed on the sidelines and the demand had easy time taking the index up.  A look at the intraday chart reveals that the index quickly moved up early in the session with increased volume. Later the index was range bound for most part of the session. Then in the later of part of the session the index move past the range and scaled newer heights with increased volume. It is clear that up moves were fueled by increased volume indicating that the quality of demand was indeed good albeit on low volumes. Hence overall, though the volume was low the bias was towards strength rather than weakness. Hence indeed the index has moved to the next orbit and we are likely to see newer heights.