3 M Market Analysis 1 10

Using Market Indicators to deduct market bottoms.

#NIFTY View on the 9th of July.

  Today the Index opened up ay  10,838 above the Price Rejection Level of 10,810 and closed slightly above at 10,852. The Index stock volume however remained below average.  The index up move looks less credible because of the low volume.  But the full market saw Buy volumes thrice the sell volume and the advances were twice the decline though the overall volume was less than average. Looks like the index is being propped up to support some buying across the market.  Next couple of moves is important to see if the index will sustain above the Price Rejection Level. The probability of sustaining look less and the move may peter out.

#NIFTY View of the Nifty on 7th July.

 For most part of June the Index has been range bound. Price Rejection level has been around 10810. In other words prices above 10810 could not be sustained.  Similarly the Price support level was around 10630-70. In other words support was coming below these levels and the index always recovered. To have any uptrend the index has to decisively move above 10810 and sustain. The volume pattern does not support a breakout above 10810 levels yet. The probability of some more range bound moves is more likely.

Market Outlook on the 19th May, 2018

#NIFTY #VSA #MARKETOUTLOOK Having a look at the Market after a long Gap. In April we saw the index making a smart up move. But weakness started to creep in in the beginning of May.  Though the overall movement was upwards we could see that selling pressure was indeed having a upper hand. Clearly some amount of distribution was happening.  We could see selling on increased volume.  Failing to hold above 10560 could see the Index test the weak support levels around 10400 levels below which we will see sub 10200 levels. Probability favors lower side as of now.

#NIFTY #VSA Review on the 12th March

. Today it seemed that the strength was indeed returning to the Market. We saw a above average spread up Bar closing at the top. However the volume was just about average.  The overall market also showed more buying pressure than selling pressure. The overall market volume also remained just average. Now the index is back into the trading range.  The strength that was seen today lacks credibility as indicated by the mediocre volume. We need to wait and see what happens in the next few sessions to confirm if the strength has indeed returned to the market. More sideways moves or in other words more ranging is expected. Any big uptrend is ruled out for the present and neither any big downside is expected.

#NIFTY #VSA Review for the week ending on the 9th of March.

 Last week end we expected the market to show some strength provided nothing crawls out of the banking mess.  More news regarding the PNB scam sent the market down. Let us do some bar by bar analysis for some lessons in VSA.  It was on the 6^th we saw the market go down based on news and breaking the previous support to seek new lows. We saw a wide spread Bar closing at the low. (Bar marked “A”).  But the volume was just about average. Clearly the selling was not huge as indicated by the volume. The weakness was indeed limited. The next Bar (Marked “B”) was a down Bar closing down and the volume increased. However the spread was narrow. The increased volume could not push the index down much. Clearly there was strength in this Bar. This strength manifested in the next Bar, marked “C”.  The Bar “C” was an up Bar closing on the top. The spread was about average and the volume also just above average.  The lower tail of the Bar which was much more than the body of the Bar indicates that selling was still present.  The strength seen in the “C” Bar was mediocre and almost disappeared in the next Bar. The next Bar (marked “D”) opened above the previous Bar but closed slightly down. The spread was narrow and the volume was low. It is difficult to classify such bar as “No Demand” or “No Supply” bar.  This was more of a “disinterest bar” as neither the buyers nor the sellers showed much interest. But the down side seems limited.  The coming week could see more lack luster trading days till some real strength comes in.

#NIFTY #VSA Review of the Market for the week ending 1-3-18.

 As expected the Index has been moving sideways.  The overall Market has been also moving almost in sync with the Index.  Good consolidation is going on in the market. The price rejection level for the index is 10585 and the price support level is 10360.  The declines in the market have been at lower volumes. When we look at the wave chart the Buy waves seem to be gaining strength. The Sell waves has not been able move the index much. This is typically seen towards the latter half of consolidation ranges as the accumulation drains supply.  We could see some more accumulation including a possible shakeout. The coming week is likely to see some strength because of the northeast election results unless we see another scam  crawl out of the mess called Banking.

#PSUBANKS

Strangely when news of Bank Scams are coming we can see some buying in some PSU Banks in the last two sessions. The buying is absent in Private sector Banks

#NIFTY Weekend view on the 18th.

  As expected the market has been moving sideways.  Last week the selling pressure was more than the buying pressure. However the volume was average to low. The bad news which hit towards the end of the week failed to push the market down too much and the volume remained low. In the overall market also selling dominated in the last three sessions.  With more bad news coming selling pressure is likely to remain in the coming week as well. But the downside is likely to be limited and the index is more likely to continue sideways move.

#NIFTY View of the Market on the 12th of February.

 During my last post on the 8^th the view was that the downside is capped and more sideways movement for the index can be expected. The overall Index movement is still sideways. However the overall market saw sustained buying interest for last three sessions. More buying interest in the overall market can be expected for the coming sessions while the index could move sideways. Sustained closes above 10640 would be required to ensure up trend for the Index. But that will most likely take some time to happen.

#NIFTY View on the 8th of February.

Today we saw strength in the index which gained about 100 points. We saw an above average Bar with above average volume closing on the upper side. The buying pressure dominated the selling pressure. The overall Market also saw wide spread buying. The advances overwhelmed the declines. The buy volume overwhelmed the sell volume. So did the gains over the losses.  The EMA of the buy volume crossed above the average of the sell volume. The average Advances crossed above the average of the declines almost after a month. The Market and the Index move in unison today. Whether this strength will continue or will we see some more sideways moves. We need to wait for the next couple of sessions. The latter seems more probable. At least one thing seems to be certain. The down side seems capped.

#NIFTY View on the 7th of February.

Today the Index opened on a positive note. However the index could not hold on to the gains and eventually closed slightly negative. Yesterday we saw buying in the Index while the overall Market saw selling. Today it was the opposite case as the index saw selling and the overall Market saw some good buying. The advances and the gains were much higher than declines and losses. However the buying and selling volumes were almost at par. The disparity between the overall market and the index still indicates persisting weakness. However it is also an indication that downside would be limited. Such disparity can also be seen in sideways market. We need to see both the Index and the Market move together for any real recovery.

#NIFTY View on the 6th of February.

 Today the Index opened deep down from the previous close.  However in the later half of the session the index recovered smartly with increasing volume regaining part of the losses. We saw a wide spread bar closing on the upper side. The volume was also above average. Today’s Bar indicates there was indeed buying at lower levels.  The overall market did not reflect similar sentiment and unlike yesterday the market behaved contrary to the Index.  The sell volume was 83% compared to the Buy volume of 17%. The losses overwhelmed the gains. So did the declines compared to the advances. The market could see some more downside though limited with sideways moves to follow.

#NIFTY Market Review on the 5th of February.

As most of you may be aware that I have been doing some experiments comparing the overall market behavior with that of the Index. For the last few weeks we had noticed that the behavior of the index was contrary to that of the overall market. When the market was witnessing overall selling pressure the index was showing lot of buying pressure and was moving up.  This index and the market behaving in a contrary fashion was indeed an indication that something was amiss and the index would soon follow the overall market. In the current case I was expecting the index to react sooner. But the Index kept on moving up against a weak market for a over stretched period giving doubts to my belief. Finally the budget turned out to be the trigger and the Index reacted in a big way. The current market had been good learning experience for me. A lot more study would be required to freeze the concepts.   Today’s chart clearly shows there was indeed Buying both in the overall market and the Index in spite of the deep cut. In the market the Buy Volume was almost double that of sell volume. The Index also recovered from the low to close near the top of the bar. The buying pressure was also comparable to the selling pressure though less. All this does indicate that further downside is limited.

NIFTY# View on the 29th January.

Today we saw the Index open on a positive note, moved up about 90 points and finally closed 60 points up with the buying pressure slightly edging out the selling pressure. The spread and the volume were above average.  However the overall market projected a different picture. The selling pressure clearly dominated the buying pressure. The declines were more than double of that of advances. The losses were five times of the gains. The sell volume was 69% compared to 31% Buy volume.  The overall market presented a negative picture for the last four sessions while the index presented a positive picture.  It looks  like lot of buying is happening in the index stocks while the overvalued and over stretched mid and small caps are being liquidated.  This scenario is likely to continue in the coming sessions too.

#NIFTY View on the 24th of January.

  The upmove in the index seems to be losing steam. The Index is struggling to move up. Today we saw high volume and the index was unable to make much headway. The overall Market was again bearish with the decline out numbering the advances, loses dominating gains and the sell volume edging over Buy volumes. It could be the caution before the expiry.  We need wait and see how the market would behave after the expiry date.

#NIFTY View on the 22nd January.

 We had seen that recently the Market and the Index exhibited diverse indications. However last Friday we saw the market and Index were in sync. We were not sure that it was a one off situation or not. The same continued today as well. Both the Market and the Index showed strength with buying pressure dominating. The next couple of sessions are important as the  Market and the index in sync would augur more bullishness.

#NIFTY #Market View on the 21st of January.

  I am back to the Market after a break.  The Nifty has been moving up from the beginning of the year slowly and steadily. Recently we can see the volume too had increasing. The buying pressure is also dominant.  All this gives an impression of very positive outlook.  However when we look at the overall market we would be surprised to see the marked difference. The picture presented by the overall Market is starkly different from that of NIFTY. We can see that from the beginning of the year the buying volume and been declining and of lately showing indecision. The declining stocks outnumber the advancing stocks.  The selling pressure in the last week clearly overwhelmed the buying pressure.  The overall volume has been above average.   So the overall market is behaving in a contrary fashion compared to the Index. This diverse behavior only indicates weakness for the market.  The probability the weakness extending to the Index soon is quite high. Caution is recommended at these levels.