#NIFTY View on the 10th of May.

Today we saw the index scaling new heights. We saw an above average Bar closing nearing the high. The volume was less than average. This indicates that supply stayed on the sidelines and the demand had easy time taking the index up.  A look at the intraday chart reveals that the index quickly moved up early in the session with increased volume. Later the index was range bound for most part of the session. Then in the later of part of the session the index move past the range and scaled newer heights with increased volume. It is clear that up moves were fueled by increased volume indicating that the quality of demand was indeed good albeit on low volumes. Hence overall, though the volume was low the bias was towards strength rather than weakness. Hence indeed the index has moved to the next orbit and we are likely to see newer heights.

#LearningwithMarar #Dabur End of a Down Move.

 #Dabur End of a Down Move.

#NIFTY Weekend view on the 7th of May.

On last Thursday we saw clear sign of strength. Hence Friday’s move was indeed quite unexpected. We saw a widespread down bar on high volume closing at the low. The volume was about 15% lower than the previous day. The index closed below the last acceptable price levels of 9306. Overall, technically it was clear sign of weakness.  So the question that arises is whether the weakness would continue, increase and take the index down a lot.

Generally when we are analyzing the Index in terms of VSA we look at it in isolation as if it is a stock. However when we see a totally unexpected move, it always pays to probe a little deeper by looking at the components. We need to see if the weakness was across the board or if it was confined to some individual stories.  Fridays’s weakness was not really across the board and major weakness was confined to some select sectors. Major sell off was seen in the PSU banking sector.  Just Bank of Baroda and SBI contributed to nearly 25% of the volume. Next were the Metals stocks Hindalco and Tata steel which contributed another 10%. Just four stocks contributing to nearly 35% of the Volume. Hence we can say with some level of confidence that the weakness seen on Friday is not as pronounced as it seems. Indeed we may see a little more down side and some more consolidation before seeking higher sides again. 9220 could give the required support.

#SBIN #PSUBANK Finally SBI moves...

#SBIN #PSUBANK  During the last week end we saw that the PSU BANKS were poised for a good move. (My post on the 30^th April). As expected the PSU banks made some smart up move.  Union bank, Bank of Baroda, oriental Banks are some examples. Now SBI also joined the race scaling new yearly high on high volume.

#NIFTY View on the 4th of May.

After some sideways move on low volume today the index showed sign of bullishness.  The index opened near historical high and soon we saw supply coming in taking it down.  However in the latter half of the session demand dominated the show to take the index back to near the open. We also saw the volume increase to a month’s high. 

Today’s Bar resembles a dragon fly Doji though not an ideal one as the high was a trifle higher than the open.  Normally a dragon fly doji after an uptrend would indicate of a trend reversal. Here the Doji is happening after some consolidation albeit after an up move.  Hence the reversal loses all significance.  What is important here is the dominance of Demand and that too quality demand.  Also we need to notice that sellers are very active though they gave in to demand later on.  Overall, today’s move is indeed a sign of strength and we should see the index seeking higher levels.